Just Published: Lithuania Autos Report 2010

PR Log (Press Release) – Dec 25, 2009 – The Lithuanian economy is to heading towards a deep recession in 2009. A direct bearing of this will be felt in the country's automotive industry, according to BMI's 2009 Lithuania Autos Report. Estimates from the Association des Constructeurs Européens d'Automobiles (ACEA), indicate that total vehicle sales reached 31,973 units, down by 9.8% compared with 2007 levels. New passenger cars registrations reached 22,217 units last year compared with 21,606 sold in 2007 while commercial vehicle segment registrations stood close to 31% lower at 9,756 units last year. BMI believes that much of the fall in the commercial vehicle segment could be attributed to the downturn in the transport sector. According to local media reports, a drop in orders and growing losses in the road haulage sector are leading many firms to close or cut back their operations. BMI expects the economy to suffer a deep recession in 2009. We expect real GDP growth of -7.1% yearon- year (y-o-y) this year, which is likely to be followed by a growth of 1.5% in 2010, most of the which will come in H210. In line with this view, we expect consumers to stay away from the purchase of highticket items as such as cars. Our 2009 sales outlook presents a close to 35% y-o-y decline to 20,780 units. Recovery in the market will fall in line with the overall recovery in economic conditions. We forecast sales to stand at only 1% higher in 2010 compared with 2009's 21,000 units. Baltic states Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have no domestic assembly capacity, which pulls down their scores for limits of potential returns in BMI's Business Environment Ratings for the sector. Estonia lies in sixth place with Lithuania and Latvia in eighth and ninth, respectively. Toyota Motor is the most popular brand on the Baltic passenger car market, with a close to 16% market share and vehicle sales reaching 275 units in October 2008. The second most popular brand was Volkswagen (VW), followed by Škoda Auto. The components sector remains as the most significant part of the industry, out of which the wire and cables industry accounts for 79% of output. SY Wiring Technologies Lietuva, co-owned by Germany's Siemens and Japan's Yazaki, is the key player in the market, mostly helped by its supply contract with Renault which ran until 2008. Another supplier, Lietkabelis, produces cable bundles for Volvo Trucks. On the whole the country has huge potential for growth, mainly coming from consumer demand. Nevertheless the recession is likely to leave a strong dent to consumer confidence in the short and medium term.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary

- SWOT Analysis

- Lithuania Autos Industry SWOT

- Lithuania Political SWOT

- Lithuania Economic SWOT

- Lithuania Business Environment SWOT

- CEE Regional Case Study

- Autos Mergers And Acquisitions

- Top Ten Auto Industry Deals

- Porsche And Volkswagen: Key Figures (2008)

- Cutting Down The Load

- Business Environment Ratings

- Western, Central & Eastern Europe Business Environment Ratings

- Industry Forecast Scenario

- Lithuania - Historical Data & Forecasts 2006-2014

- Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Table: Lithuania - Economic Activity

- Competitive Landscape

- Suppliers

- Component Industry - Market Share (%), By Segment

- Dealerships

- Commercial Vehicles

- Baltic Market, 2008

- Company Monitor

- PSA Peugeot Citroen Regional Profile

- Financial Woes

- Focus On Faurecia

- Merger Opportunity

- Eye On Eastern Europe

- Company Profiles

- Ford/Mazda

- Yazaki Wiring Technologies (formerly SY Wiring Technologies)

- BMI Forecast Modelling

- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

- Sources

- Appendix

- Regional Demographic Data

- Wages (average labour force per annum), US$ PPP

- Population

- Household Spending Per Capita, US$

- Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

- Market Size, GDP, US$bn

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